Real-Time STRC Estimates: How We Predict Strategy's Bitcoin Purchases

Our estimator was built to answer a simple question: how much Bitcoin is Strategy likely buying through its STRC preferred stock program, and when? Strategy raises capital through its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock — ticker STRC — via an At-The-Market offering whenever the share price trades at or above its $100 par value. In simple terms, Strategy can issue new shares when the price is at or above $100, and it uses that cash to buy Bitcoin. Because official SEC filings arrive with a delay, our real-time estimator gives the community a transparent, up-to-date picture of how many STRC shares are likely being issued each day and how much Bitcoin that activity could be adding to Strategy's treasury.

The estimator monitors every one-minute STRC candle across the full trading day, including pre-market and after-hours sessions. For each minute where the intra-minute high reaches $100 or above, a precise method is used to determine the actual ATM-eligible volume. As of Monday, April 6, the model switched from one-minute resolution to one-second bars. This finer granularity makes it possible to build a detailed volume profile inside each minute, counting only the volume traded during the specific seconds the volume-weighted average price was at or above $100. The practical effect is meaningful: the change noticeably reduces overestimation on choppy days where prices spike briefly before pulling back.

Once the refined ATM volume is established, a 70% capture ratio is applied to estimate the shares actually issued through the ATM program. That figure was calibrated against recent SEC filings and is deliberately kept slightly conservative. The previous model used a rougher 55% ratio. After applying the new one-second logic retroactively to the week of March 30–April 5, the gap became clear: the original formula with a 55% ratio had estimated 3,137,208 shares against a confirmed 3,303,227 — a close result. In that case, two errors were partially canceling each other out: the one-minute resolution was overcounting eligible volume on choppy minutes, while the lower 55% capture ratio was underestimating the actual issuance. The improved formula, applied to the same week, dropped the estimate to 2,501,817 shares, requiring a capture ratio closer to 73% to match the filing. The estimator settled on 70% as a conservative but well-anchored figure.

From there, a standard 2.5% underwriter commission is deducted from the gross proceeds to arrive at the net amount. Those net proceeds are divided by the Bitcoin price at each minute to calculate how much BTC Strategy could have purchased. The “session-average Bitcoin price” shown on the dashboard is a derived output (total net proceeds ÷ total BTC bought) — it represents the implied average cost basis, not an input to the calculation.

Since we don’t know exactly when Strategy actually deploys the proceeds into Bitcoin, using the per-minute BTC price is simply the best available approximation. This approach also ensures that the cumulative BTC amount stays stable within a given minute.

The estimator improves continuously through regular calibration. After each new SEC filing is published, the real reported numbers are compared against prior estimates. For any historical date now covered by a filing, the dashboard automatically switches to the exact reported figure and flags it as official SEC data — a feedback loop that steadily tightens the model over time. Even when the share count aligns closely, the final Bitcoin estimate can still diverge somewhat from what appears in filings. That's because filings often bundle STRC proceeds together with common stock and other preferred instruments, and Strategy doesn’t always deploy 100% of new capital into Bitcoin immediately.

In practice, this gives investors a near real-time lens into one of the largest ongoing Bitcoin accumulation strategies in the market — offering a meaningful informational edge in tracking capital flows that would otherwise only become visible weeks later through filings.

Live numbers are available on the STRC Dashboard.